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The U.S. is a country that too often treats foresight as a nuisance rather than a necessity, and the question isn't whether we've been warned; it's whether we care, writes John Casey.
Opinion: Will Americans finally understand what's happening because of Trump? writes John Casey.
When experts warn us, we should open our eyes, but Americans have a history of turning a blind eye.
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I’ve written previously about my experience working with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 10 years ago. Climate scientists told us that global temperatures were rising, that floods and droughts would grow more extreme, and that wildfires would become routine, not rarer.
We shrugged, called it alarmism, and passed the sunscreen. Now we’ve had the hottest summers on record, coastlines eroding before our eyes, and billion-dollar disasters nearly every season. The scientists were right. We simply didn’t want to hear them.
And before the 2024 election, I wrote about the urgency and importance of U.S. generals, with no ax to grind, coming forward to denounce Donald Trump. Then, right before the election, a trio of highly respected, nonpartisan generals, Stanley McChrystal, John Kelly, and Mark Milley, each in their own way, broke with military custom to warn the American people that Trump posed a clear and present danger to democracy.
Their warnings weren’t partisan; they were patriotic. But much of the electorate dismissed their pertinent advice. The generals were right too. We just didn’t want to believe them.
Now it’s the economists’ turn.
This Memorial Day weekend, while millions of Americans fire up the grill or hit the road for a well-earned break, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, who is not exactly a man prone to hyperbole, issued a grave warning this week. There is, he said, a dangerous “complacency” in the face of what’s coming for the U.S. economy.
We’d be wise to listen.
Dimon isn’t the only one sounding the alarm. A growing chorus of economists and financial experts has begun to sketch a dark horizon: an economy teetering toward recession, prices will soar, bond markets on edge, U.S. credit rate dropping, and working-class families soon to be gasping for air. But in a country that too often treats foresight as a nuisance rather than a necessity, the question isn't whether we've been warned; it's whether we care.
Take the "Big Beautiful Bill" that passed the House this week. While it’s wrapped in star-spangled rhetoric and delivered with Trump’s usual showmanship, economists across the spectrum are deeply troubled. The bill slashes taxes on the ultra-wealthy, guts Medicaid under the guise of “efficiency,” and hands billions to defense contractors while pretending to be a budgetary miracle. It robs trans Americans of federally funded gender-affirming care.
But the bond markets know better. Already jittery from the nation’s recentlydowngraded credit rating, investors are pricing in higher interest rates. That means more expensive mortgages, car loans, and student debt. This is not abstract theory. This is kitchen-table economics. And it’s about to get worse.
Since January, the Trump administration has danced a tariff two-step, on-again, off-again, depending on the mood of the day or the hour. China, Europe, Mexico, even Canada, no ally or adversary has been spared. These tariffs are already clogging U.S. ports with red tape and fewer goods.
On both coasts, import volumes are shrinking. In the Gulf, ships are idling longer. And fort big companies like Walmart and Nike, among others, the effects are immediate: higher prices. Executives have warned customers that those price hikes are just beginning. Economists estimate that within four to six weeks, some store shelves could go empty, not due to consumer panic, but due to policy chaos.
Still, Americans are told to keep calm and carry on, as if prices doubling for sneakers and cereal is just the price of patriotism. But ask the single mom on Medicaid or the retiree whose fixed income doesn’t stretch as far this month, and their answer might be closer to panic than pride.
Dimon and others aren’t forecasting doom because they dislike the president. They’re doing so because the fundamentals are fraying. The economy is not an ideology. It is not a campaign rally. It is a living, breathing network of global interdependence, susceptible to mismanagement and delusion. And right now it is being driven by both.
Yes, Americans will enjoy Memorial Day. And they should. We honor the fallen by living freely. But let us not forget that freedom includes the freedom to act wisely in the face of danger. Because the real question isn't what happens this weekend. It's what happens on the Fourth of July, when inflation hits like fireworks for all the wrong reasons. Or on Labor Day, when job losses start to trickle in and the poor and middle class find themselves bearing the brunt again.
Complacency is not just dangerous; it’s a luxury we can no longer afford. The warnings are flashing in neon. The question is no longer “Will we be warned?” The question is, “Will we listen?”
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